Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior, 1980

Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior

by T. S. Wallsten 1980

E-Book: 305*2 English pages

Publisher: Psychology Press

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This book of collected essays ,edited by Wallsten,is basically on the right track.Most of the contributors are aware of the severe drawbacks of the standard F P Ramsey-B De Finetti-L J Savage subjectivist,Bayesian approach that claims that all probability assessments must be consistent with the purely mathematical laws of the probability calculus so that precise, sharp probabilities alone are used in decision making processes.

Unfortunately,the book contains the standard error that claims that Keynes had a theory built on the assumption that numbers could not be used in estimating probabilities except in certain special circumstances where the Principle of Indifference held strictly :

“Valid procedures for attaining numerical assessments of uncertainty are very recent.For example,although Keynes’s ideas were important in the development of nonfrequentist probability theory,he stated explicitly that for many events a numerical assessment of probability is impossible.” (G.F.Pitz,essay 5,1980,p.77)

This view is implicitly held by all of the other essayists.This is unfortunate because Keynes never ever stated that there were many events where numerical assessments of probability could not be made.What Keynes said was that for the majority of probability assessments,two numbers,not one,would need to be used.” Non numerical ” translates as not by a single numeral.It does not translate as not by any number.This latter claim is,of course,the bizarre claim of F P Ramsey, based on his own shabby reading of chapter III of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability(TP;1921).Pitz will have to read chapters 15,17,20,and 22 of the TP(1921) in order to realize the egregious error made by Ramsey in 1922 and 1926.